Premortem Analysis – Identifying Weaknesses Before They Happen

Imagining a future event as if it has already occurred can enhance the ability to anticipate potential issues and generate more comprehensive explanations.

Introduction

Projects fail at a spectacular rate, often because people are hesitant to voice their reservations during the critical planning phase. By making it safe for team members who have concerns to speak up, you can improve a project's chances of success. One effective method to do this is the premortem analysis.

What is a Premortem Analysis?

A premortem is a proactive approach to risk management where you imagine that a project has already failed and work backwards to determine why.

This technique is based on research from 1989 by Deborah J. Mitchell, Jay Russo, and Nancy Pennington, which found that prospective hindsight—imagining that an event has already occurred—improves the ability to identify reasons for future outcomes by 30%. This method helps project teams identify risks at the outset rather than at the end.

In 1992 Gary Klein, a cognitive psychologist, i…